Press reports claiming that median house prices have declined 20% are misleading. By definition, there are as many sales above the median as below. Maps & Facts has screened over 10,000 paired sales from January 1, 2005 through November 2007 in six (6) high school attendance boundary areas. As seen, excluding distressed sales, short sales, foreclosures, etc., house prices have actually increased since January 2005. (Time on market has increased!)
Will Light Rail help get our Inner City Schools on Track?
The map shows the Light Rail route thorough
Central Phoenix – Good. It also shows how
Central Phoenix schools have preformed on standardized tests – Not Good. If Light Rail is to attract families (and housing) to
Central Phoenix, something has to be done to improve schools.
There is a better way!It’s called “True Trade Area” analysis.
“True Trade Area” analysis starts by mapping all the targeted data, for example Median Household Income, over a larger geographic area.Then, it is usually easy to visually identify which polygons, for example Census tracts, within the larger geographic area are most similar in relation to a specific location within the larger geographic area. Finally, a common trade area can be logically drawn based on similar demographics. Thus the data, not a contrived ring, depicts the True Trade Area.
True Trade Areas come in all shapes and sizes. They will never be rings!
MAP # 1 - TRUE TRADE AREA ANALYSIS
The True Trade Area map shows all Census tracts demographically associated with the intersection of
Camelback Road and
44th Street in
Phoenix because they share proximity and high median household incomes. Also included are highly trafficked arterials with similar demographics such as
Tatum Boulevard, and
Clearly, the True Trade Area has no resemblance to a ring!
The attached “ring” analysis for the same intersection shows that within the ring, household incomes ranged from $42,763 to $202,986.Hardly homogeneous.Even worse, the periphery of the ring bisects 15 census tracts with some, none, or all of their demographic values included in the total depending upon the software assumptions used. Mathematically, a very irregular and misleading saw-toothed non-ring!
In our March 2008 Map of the Month, we opined that press reports claiming house prices have declined by 20 percent were misleading and offered Market Evidence that non-distressed prices have actually increased.
Below is the updated PowerMAP through June 2008 shows that non-distressed prices have continued to increase.
Contrary to public opinion fed by the media, not all house prices have declined, at least not since January 2005.
According to ASU Realty Studies (http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/) some Housing Districts are starting to show an increase in resale value (Map #1), and, most show an increase in the number of resales (Map #2) from 1st Quarter to 2nd Quarter 2008. (Traditional Sales exclude Trust Deeds)
The attached, full size shows Maricopa Association of Governments’ (MAG) projected population growth from 2005 to 2020.While the “fringe” areas seem far out today, the next 1,000,000 people will have to live somewhere!
The attached map compares the 5,000+ “Lender Owned Properties” For Sale / Listed in ARMLS as of December 8th, 2008 superimposed over Median Household Income by Census Tract.
As seen, foreclosures are Valley wide though higher in the newer areas west of Loop 101 (
Agua Fria).The map outlines the census tracts with the most listings.Census tract size in acres is also indicated.