With Metro
Phoenix’s soaring in-migration, newcomers wonder where to live. For this
month’s Map of the Month, with CoStar’s help we identified all apartment
projects over 200 units built since January 2015. We then organized by apartment sub-market and
then average rents as of 4th quarter 2019. The results are easily
seen and compared below.
Maps & Facts has been tracking school
performance based on State tests for over 25 years. While many factors influence
school performance, we are often asked, “Where are the best K through 12
schools located?”
To answer this question for 2019, we have
“layered” the top 12% of each Elementary, Middle, and High School and identified
those locations where all three (3) grade levels are co-located. We call it a “Trifecta” when all three (3) grade
levels share the same geography. I.e.: a student in a top Elementary school can
expect to attend top Middle and High schools without moving.
Deer Valley Unified District (North
Phoenix)
Sandra Day O'Connor High School
Stetson Hills Middle School (K-8)
Stetson Hills School (K-8)
Scottsdale Unified District (North
Scottsdale)
Desert Mountain High School
Desert Canyon Middle School
Desert Canyon Elementary
Redfield Elementary
Higley Unified
School District (Gilbert)
Higley High School
Sossaman Middle School
Bridges Elementary School
Cortina Elementary
San Tan Elementary
Power Ranch Elementary
As shown on the map below, in 2019 there were
three (3) Trifectas starting, in two instances, with
multiple Elementary school options. Also included below are individual maps for
each Trifecta.
Since 2001, Maps & Facts has tracked the annual
change in median sales prices for a standardized data set of over 20,000
houses: i.e. all houses built between 1990 and 1999 which sold from $100,000 to
$1 million between 2002 and 2019. While most studies include a broad mix of
houses, our data base tracks the median appreciation/depreciation rates of the
same house. (i.e. paired sales)
As the chart and maps show, our data set’s median annual
re-sale price increase for 2019 was 6.88%, in line with recent years.
Know that the annual per
cent change in median price is nominal and:
·Represents re-sales of the same houses,
not price per square-foot.
·Includes annual maintenance costs of between
1% and 2% of house value.
·Excludes selling costs, often 5%.
·Includes economic volatility including
interest rates.
Overview: Reported COVID- 19 Deaths Nationwide as of 4/24/2020
Sadly, this month’s map is a national overview highlighting states with the highest COVID-19 deaths. Understandably, the media focuses on major outbreaks – primarily on the east and west coasts. In a hopefully more positive view, it also shows those many states with the fewest deaths.
We, and a few million others, are anxious (afraid?) to learn how the Corona Virus has and will affect residential real estate. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the number of sales has declined but values have not. To get some clarification, for houses selling between $100,000 and $1,000,000, Maps & Facts has compared the number of closed sales for May 2019 with May 2020. The map below shows the relative changes by MLS grid geography.
The numbers behind this months’ map show there were 37% fewer sales overall: but, an increase in the median sales price of 5.8%. (In keeping with our other studies.)
Implied Impact of Covid-19 on Flagstaff House Prices
Since the March outbreak of C-19, we have all been uneasy
about residential real estate values. As a Flagstaff second homeowner, I took a
deep dive into the Flagstaff single-family housing market to see how the market
has trended since March 2020. (Disclosure: As owner/broker, my secluded 2250 SF
townhouse at 4005 N. Tam O’Shanter Dr.is on the market for $429,900! - Property
Link)
For starters, we prepared the following PowerMap® comparing
the 12-month change in single family median sales prices for May 2019 and May 2020.
As shown, year-over-year, all Flagstaff MLS regions have increased in value; some more than others. The Northwest Rural Region and the Southeast City Regions experienced 10.34% and 13.49% increases. Not unexpectedly, West Rural and East Rural experienced nominal increases. Due to property type and buyer profiles, the more urban MLS Regions experienced increases from 4.38% to 7.58%. This compares favorably with the MLS’s annual appreciated rate of 3.34%
The Covid 19 challenge is understanding these changes since March 2020. The Northern Arizona MLS offers an excellent statistical summary. Since March 2020, there were more new listings resulting in more active listings
At the same time, the March through May sold listing prices increased from about $370,000 to almost $400,000. I.e.: While the number of listings increased, so did sales prices.
A similar benchmark is Days on Market. Since March 2020, DOM decreased indicating demand exceeded supply. According to the MLS the median sale price in May 2019 increased by 10.59% and by 8.57% year to date.
In summary, since March 2020 values in the Flagstaff markets have increased and Days on Market have decreased.
While there are fewer entry level houses on the market
today, many home-builders have pivoted from “move up” to “affordable”. This
month’s map shows the locations of new subdivisions offering houses priced
under $300,000. As seen, there are numerous choices especially along I-10 west
and Loop 303.
Commercialcafé.com recently
published a study based on U.S. Census Bureau MSA data showing that from 2013
through 2017 Metro Phoenix (which includes Pinal County) had the highest
average annual population growth in the United States. (Thanks Lee &
Associates!)
This month’s
map shows the top 10 (SMA’s). As seen, while not number one, Texas had 3 of the
top 5!
Maps &
Facts periodically updates our “Population Density” map shown below. It is
still amazing that San Francisco and Manhattan’s populations, together, easily
fit inside Phoenix’s political boundaries!
This month
we also compared population change for Phoenix (City of), San Francisco, and
Manhattan. Interestingly, Phoenix, San Francisco, and Manhattan’s populations
increased from 2017 through 2019. However, from 2019 to 2020, while Phoenix’s
population continued to increase, San Francisco and Manhattan’s populations
decreased.
One can
speculate as to the many reasons. Regardless, there is a trend away from uber
high density cities toward livable low-density cities − such as Phoenix. This trend will likely accelerate.
Last week, the Phoenix Business Journal listed the top 25
private schools based on their Fall 2020 enrollment, copy attached. The oldest,
Brophy College Prep (boys), # 3 on the list, was established in 1928. The next
oldest, Xavier College Prep (girls), #4 on the list, was established in 1943. (Presumably
Interrupted by the Great Depression and WW II).
The newest, St. John Paul II Catholic High School in
Avondale, #22, was founded 90 years later in 2018.
As shown on this month’s map, the founding of private
schools followed the outward growth of Metropolitan Phoenix’s population from the
heart of Central Phoenix in 1928 to Avondale in 2018, and beyond.
In July 2019, Maps and Facts published a trade area
comparison created by a 5-mile ring versus a True Trade Area both based on the
intersection of Lincoln Drive and Scottsdale Rd. (found here)
We recently had occasion to revisit this data and found it
even more compelling. As shown in July 2019 and below:
·
The 5-mile ring included most of Paradise Valley
and the densest retail area of the Salt River Indian Reservation (where no one
lives)
·
The True Trade Area excluded all of Paradise
Valley and all the reservation
Our message is – be careful using “ring” trade areas. If
possible, use or convert to True Trade Area polygon analyses.
Thom Carson is one of the most
experienced GIS and real estate data analysts in Arizona, if not in the United
States. After 15 years of preparing our monthly “Map of the Month” and
assisting me in numerous complex appraisal and consulting assignments, it is
time for Thom (tac@powermaps.com) to
embark on a loftier and new GIS+ journey; and, for us to publish this, our
last, Map of the Month.
Our Maps & Facts website (www.mapsandfacts.com) will maintain all
past “Maps of the Month” and related GIS productions. You are welcome to copy any
without copyright infringement.
