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 Map of the Month – January 2017

Total Income Clusters

2015 Census Adjusted for Density


 

GIS mapping facilitates combining multiple layers of discrete data. This month, we have combined the number of households by median household income divided by the number of square miles and color-coded total household income by census tract; after adjusting for population density.

As seen, there are at least five “clusters” which represent the highest total incomes. Sometimes this may be a proxy for other data points such as disposable income, housing prices, and schools.

In no order, the five clusters that pop out are:

                                               Ahwatukee/Mountain Park Ranch

                                        S. Scottsdale near Scottsdale Fashion Sq.

                                              The Islands area in Gilbert

                                       North Phoenix south of 101 and Tatum

                                                     North-central Phoenix

Pop-Inc Dens-Map72

 To download map click here: Total Income Clusters (PDF)



 Map of the Month – February 2017

Median Sale Price Range by Top Ranked Schools


 

Maps & Facts researched the 2016 AzMERIT scores for the Top Metro Phoenix Elementary and High Schools.  Eight (8) top Elementary Schools were paired with five (5) top High Schools.  We then calculated the Median Sales Price for each Elementary School’s attendance boundaries.  The median is the midpoint of all sales (not the average).  By definition, half the median sales are below the median price and half are above.  

The attached chart summarizes our data.  Because 2016 median was about $240,000, we have also included the high and low prices for each school.  As shown, affordable price houses are available in most of these elementary school districts.

The Phoenix Business Journal has a more detailed look at the individual schools - Click Here!

Bestschools

To download map & chart click here: Median SP Range by Top Ranked Schools (PDF)



Map of the Month – March 2017

2016 Single Family Appreciation Update:  +4.25%.

 

Most year-over-year appreciation surveys can vary dramatically from year-to-year because the  data often includes a wide mix of all houses, of all ages, of all sizes, of all prices, for all extremes (including outliers) – hardly apples with apples.

Maps & Facts Unlimited tracks the price pattern of a representative house; not the entire mix. For each year since 2001 Maps & Facts Unlimited has tracked sales of single-family houses built between 1990 and 1999 which sold between $100,000 and $1,000,000. I.e. How has the median appreciation rate for our representative house changed since 2001; and more importantly today, since 2015?

The chart below tracks 15 years of price changes. Based on over 15,000 sales, the median sale price in 2016 was $270,000; 4.25% higher than 2015. The chart also shows that the median sales price is still well below the $302,000 peak in 2006.

Chart-16 72


On the following 2016 map, the red dots represent the locations of the 2016 sales. When we compare each year’s dots*, their locations are virtually identical.

Apples with Apples!

 72

To download map & chart click here: Update - Single Family Appreciation (PDF)


Map of the Month – April 2017

Projected House Prices

 

Maps & Facts has been tracking the median price changes of our representative “benchmark” house; i.e. built 1990 to 1999, $100,000 to $1 million, since 2001. (See March 2017 map). As our March 2017 map shows from 2015 to 2016 our benchmark increased from $259,000 to $270,000; an increase of 4.25% — still not back to our 2006 high of $302,000.

To see where we may be going, as shown, this month we mapped all benchmark MLS house listings by MLS grid. As of April 19, the median list price was $409,900. While this number is a giant leap from 2016’s $270,000 median price, and not to be relied upon, it is due to major differences between our recorded sales data base and the MLS’s data base. The MLS data base includes a widely different mix of listing prices and Days on Market than does the recorded sales data base. For example, of the 2,440 MLS listings, 1,037 (42.5%) are listed above $450,000, and, have been on the market 100 days or longer.

A better guide is to examine each grid and compare current medians with past sales in that grid. Together, it is probable that prices for our benchmark houses will increase significantly this year!

Mls Grid 72

To download map click here: Projected House Prices (PDF)


Map of the Month – May 2017

Phoenix #1 in Population Growth (2015- 2016)

 

The US Census Bureau recently released population growth data for cities with a population over 50,000. (Includes births over deaths.) These are absolute net gains; not percentages. As shown below, 4 of the 5 top growth cities are in the West including Phoenix at #1. The next growth cohort is Texas with 4 cities making the cut; plus, San Diego. Four (4) of the remaining 5 cities are on the East coast with 2 in Florida (By way of disclosure, my daughter’s family lives near Jacksonville. Smart girl!)

Any way you cut it, Phoenix is back!

Usa-Largestpop 72
To download map & chart click here: Phoenix #1 in Population Growth (PDF)

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Maps of the Month: 2008 * 2009 * 2010 * 2011 * 2012 2013 2014 * 2015 * 2016 2017


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